Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community: An by Central Intelligence Agency (CIA),Center for the Study of

By Central Intelligence Agency (CIA),Center for the Study of Intelligence,Rob Johnston

From the Foreword: it's a infrequent season whilst the intelligence tale within the information issues intelligence research, now not mystery operations in a foreign country. the USA is having this sort of season because it debates even if intelligence failed within the run-up to either September eleven and the second one Iraq warfare, and so Rob Johnston's very good e-book is completely timed to supply the back-story to these headlines. The CIA's heart for the examine of Intelligence is to be recommended for having the great feel to discover Johnston and the braveness to aid his paintings, even if his conclusions usually are not what many on this planet of intelligence research wish to hear.

He reaches these conclusions throughout the cautious tactics of an anthropologist—conducting actually thousands of interviews and staring at and collaborating in dozens of labor teams in intelligence analysis—and so that they can't simply be brushed off as mere opinion, nonetheless much less because the sour mutterings of these who've misplaced out within the bureaucratic wars. His findings represent not only a powerful indictment of ways American intelligence plays research, but in addition, and fortunately, a consultant for the way to do better.

Johnston reveals no baseline average analytic approach. in its place, the commonest perform is to behavior restricted brainstorming at the foundation of past research, hence generating a bias towards confirming past perspectives. The validating of information is questionable—for example, the Directorate of Operations' (DO) "cleaning" of secret agent reviews does not allow trying out in their validity—reinforcing the tendency to seem for information that confirms, now not refutes, winning hypotheses. the method is danger averse, with significant managerial conservatism. there's even more emphasis on averting mistakes than on imagining surprises. The analytic procedure is pushed through present intelligence, specifically the CIA's crown jewel analytic product, the President's day-by-day short (PDB), that may be caricatured as "CNN plus secrets." Johnston does not positioned it really that approach, however the Intelligence group does extra reporting than in-depth analysis.

None of the analytic organizations understands a lot in regards to the analytic ideas of the others. In all, there has a tendency to be even more emphasis on writing and communique talents than on analytic equipment. education is pushed extra by way of the druthers of person analysts than by means of any strategic view of the businesses and what they wish. so much education is on-the-job.

Johnston identifies the desires for research of not less than 3 forms of consumers—cops, spies, and squaddies. the wishes of these shoppers produce at the least 3 certain forms of intelligence—investigative or operational, strategic, and tactical.

The learn indicates the necessity for critical learn of analytic equipment throughout all 3, guided by means of expert methodologists. Analysts must have many extra possibilities to do fieldwork out of the country. they need to additionally stream even more frequently around the employer "stovepipes" they now inhabit. those pursuits might supply them a richer feel for the way different firms do analysis.

CHAPTER ONE - Definitions * bankruptcy - Findings * bankruptcy 3 - A Taxonomy of Intelligence Variables * bankruptcy 4 - trying out the Intelligence Cycle via platforms Modeling and Simulation * bankruptcy 5 - Integrating Methodologists into groups of specialists * bankruptcy SIX - The query of overseas Cultures: fighting Ethnocentrism in Intelligence research * bankruptcy SEVEN - educational know-how: Effectiveness and Implications for the Intelligence group * bankruptcy 8 - Organizational tradition: Anticipatory Socialization and Intelligence Analysts * bankruptcy 9 - options: step one: spotting A basic challenge * bankruptcy TEN - Survey technique * bankruptcy 11 - Q-Sort technique * bankruptcy TWELVE - The "File-Drawer" challenge and Calculation of impact Size

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